Republicans won’t (and probably can’t) shut down the government

Republicans won’t (and probably can’t) shut down the government

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A few things are for sure: At some point in the near future Congress will pass legislation to fund the government; it won’t defund Obamacare or make sequestration-level spending semi-permanent; and some Republicans will vote for it.

It’s possible there will be a government shutdown between now and then — I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s possible. And even if a shutdown happens, the impasse will break when Republicans agree to government spending legislation that neither cripples Obamacare nor bakes sequestration into the budget for the coming year and years beyond.

It’s also a good bet that the same group of Senate Republicans who voted for immigration reform and helped confirm President Obama’s top executive nominees will be instrumental in avoiding or ending a government shutdown.

And yet the Senate’s governing coalition is fledgling enough that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was able to overpower it last week when he organized a successful filibuster of bipartisan legislation to fund the Departments of Transportation and Housing & Urban Development for a full year — precisely because it was drafted under the premise that sequestration will probably, eventually, be lifted.