C and Carnahan

this is excellant article and this is close to our "post-election" post mortum of primary night at our Augut meeting.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/40716.html


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Prop. C spells trouble for Carnahan
By: David Catanese
August 6, 2010 04:35 AM EDT

While Washington is obsessing over what the results of Missouri’s anti-health care reform ballot initiative mean for President Barack Obama, the state’s political insiders are debating whether it’s Democratic Senate nominee Robin Carnahan who needs to be worried.

A staggering 71 percent of Show-Me state primary voters cast ballots Tuesday opposing the new federal health care law — a symbolic yet resounding message that places Carnahan on the opposite side of a supermajority of the electorate.

The overwhelming vote in favor of Proposition C, a measure crafted to reject a portion of the law that requires most people to carry health insurance by 2014 or pay a fine, is the first tangible demonstration of how unpopular the president’s signature achievement remains in the Midwestern state.

Republicans argue the result from the country’s first proxy vote on the health care law is an ominous sign that bodes ill for Carnahan’s chances of capturing outgoing Republican Sen. Kit Bond’s seat this fall. As they see it, the lopsided vote crystallizes the challenge she faces in explaining her support for the legislation as she attempts to narrow her deficit in the polls with Rep. Roy Blunt, the Republican nominee.

“This is a very difficult issue for Robin Carnahan, because the crown jewel of Obama’s legislative career has been health care, and 71 percent of those voting in the primary — people who are going to come back in the general [election] — are voting for this,” said Patrick Tuohey, a Kansas City Republican who managed the Yes on Prop C campaign.

Democrats argue that placing the referendum on an August ballot stacked with more competitive Republican contests intentionally skewed the outcome.

For instance, while Republicans had competitive House primaries in the 4th and 7th Congressional Districts and an expensive statewide campaign for auditor, most Democrats on the ballot faced only nominal opposition. And 65 percent of the Senate primary ballots were cast on the Republican side, where Blunt disposed of a nominal challenge from tea party favorite state Sen. Chuck Purgason, 71 percent to 13 percent.

Even White House spokesman Robert Gibbs, when asked to assess the impact of the vote, glibly replied, “Nothing.”

“I don’t understand why people are treating this outcome as a surprise. This was a primary electorate. The single most important fact to come from Tuesday’s results is that Republicans don’t like health care reform. Stop the presses!” said Democratic consultant Roy Temple, who has worked on races in Missouri.


“I would be a lot more worried about the 30 percent of the GOP primary vote that I didn’t get if I were Roy Blunt than I would be about the 20 to 30 percent of Democrats who supported Prop C if I was Robin Carnahan. After all, it’s not exactly as if Robin is making health care reform the centerpiece of her campaign,” he added.

But if Carnahan won’t talk about health care — her campaign declined to comment for this story — Blunt will repeatedly attempt to force her to do so. If anything, Proposition C gives the seven-term congressman an additional incentive to raise the issue and highlight Carnahan’s position and alliance with Obama, whose approval rating has slumped into the mid-30s in the state, according to recent polling.

And considering heavier GOP turnout, there’s no dismissing the overwhelming numbers — only voters in the cities of St. Louis and Kansas City voted to reject the repeal measure. In some of the most rural, conservative counties, where Democratic candidates need to pull at least one-third of the vote to remain competitive statewide, opposition to the repeal registered only in the midteens. Equally worrisome is the fact that in some traditionally Democratic counties, like Jefferson County, which is part of Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan’s Southside St. Louis district, the initiative passed with over 70 percent.

“Look at counties with Democrat turnout that was almost the same as Republican, Prop C still got more than 70 percent,” said David Steelman, a former GOP state House floor leader and the party’s 1992 nominee for attorney general. “Compare to heavily Democratic areas like Kansas City or St. Louis, where Obama exceeded 80 percent but the ‘no’ vote on Prop C was less than 60 percent.”

Steelman, who served as his wife Sarah’s most trusted adviser during her unsuccessful 2008 gubernatorial bid, said the vote could also be a chilling omen for Rep. Carnahan, who is attempting to stave off an aggressive challenge from Ed Martin, former chief of staff to Gov. Matt Blunt, and to Democrat Tommy Sowers, who is trying to knock off seven-term moderate GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson in the southeastern Bootheel region.

“This is a very early indicator that candidates like Carnahan, and Sowers and Russ Carnahan, too, are in the wrong place at the wrong time. And if candidates like Russ Carnahan lose their seats, this is a tsunami,” Steelman said.

Though the proposition won’t appear on the November ballot, the GOP contends it sparked a level of conservative enthusiasm that is unlikely to fade anytime soon.


“This is the kind of stuff that the tea party people love. They are energized by this victory, and they will show up in November to finish the job. It’s Scott Brown in Missouri,” Tuohey said, referring to the Massachusetts senator who won a stunning Republican special election victory in January. “The complication for Robin is she endorsed a ‘no’ vote.”

“This would’ve won in November. Democrats wanted to move it by the primary; they did not want Robin Carnahan at the same time as this,” said Tuohey, who acknowledged that he was surprised that the vote was more than two-thirds affirmative.

But he also acknowledged that there may be an unknown percentage of people who were confused by the language and voted yes on the measure, mistakenly thinking they were supporting the health care law.

“Tea party groups were saying no for a year and now they were asked to say yes,” Tuohey explained. “Is there a possibility some people were confused? Sure, but that could’ve been true on both sides.”

Added Temple: “The impact of the confusing ballot language on Democrats is unknowable. You voted no if you were for health care reform. I did hear anecdotes that some voters may have been confused.”

But with Democrats on defense in many parts of the country, the GOP believes the August vote could signal that Missouri — a traditional bellwether state that did not support Obama at his peak of popularity in the 2008 general election — may not be a place where national Democrats spend time and resources this fall.

“The question will be whether to spend money in a state that did not vote for Obama, that voted 71 percent to reject his health care plan on a candidate trailing 6 to 8 points for months now. When the national people are looking where to put their money, this 71 percent is going to haunt Robin Carnahan because they would rather put it towards protecting Harry Reid instead of trying to pick up Kit Bond’s seat,” Tuohey predicted.


© 2010 Capitol News Company, LLC